15c/2012 Stability programme for Finland 2012
|ISBN-13:||978- 952-251-343-4|| |
|Julkaisusarja ja -numero:||15c/2012|| |
|Saatavuus:||Juvenes Print|| |
|Tekijäorganisaatio:||Ministry of Finance publications|| |
The Stability Programme is based on Prime Minister Katainen’s Government Programme, the Budget
approved by Parliament on 21 December 2011 and the First Supplementary Budget issued in March
2012 as well as on the Central Government Decision on Spending Limits for 2013–2016 and the forecasts
on which this was based.
Finland’s GDP will grow by 0.8 per cent in 2012. Growth will be dependent to a large extent on private
consumption. The outlook for exports remains poor and Finland will continue to lose market share
in global trade. In 2013 exports will pick up and private investment will again begin to grow.
In the medium term, GDP growth will gradually subside. In 2013–2016 GDP is expected to grow on
average by just under 2 per cent. The growth prospects for the economy will be adversely impacted by a
reduction in labour supply resulting from rapid change in the population age structure.
The general government financial position will improve during the programme period, but there
will be no return to the large surpluses that preceded the recession. According to the revised sustainability
estimate, the surplus on general government finances ought to be around 4 per cent of GDP in 2016
for general government finances to be on a sustainable basis over the longer term.
In the 2009 Stability Programme, Finland’s medium-term objective for general government finances
was set at a structural surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP. According to the forecast, immediate adjustment
measures and other structural factors will improve the general government financial position such that
the medium-term objective will be achieved during the programme period. At the same time, growth
of general government debt will level off relative to GDP.