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15c/2012 Stability programme for Finland 2012
ISBN-13:978- 952-251-343-4 
Julkaisusarja ja -numero:15c/2012 
Saatavuus:Juvenes Print 
Tekijäorganisaatio:Ministry of Finance publications 

27.25 €

The Stability Programme is based on Prime Minister Katainen’s Government Programme, the Budget approved by Parliament on 21 December 2011 and the First Supplementary Budget issued in March 2012 as well as on the Central Government Decision on Spending Limits for 2013–2016 and the forecasts on which this was based. Finland’s GDP will grow by 0.8 per cent in 2012. Growth will be dependent to a large extent on private consumption. The outlook for exports remains poor and Finland will continue to lose market share in global trade. In 2013 exports will pick up and private investment will again begin to grow. In the medium term, GDP growth will gradually subside. In 2013–2016 GDP is expected to grow on average by just under 2 per cent. The growth prospects for the economy will be adversely impacted by a reduction in labour supply resulting from rapid change in the population age structure. The general government financial position will improve during the programme period, but there will be no return to the large surpluses that preceded the recession. According to the revised sustainability estimate, the surplus on general government finances ought to be around 4 per cent of GDP in 2016 for general government finances to be on a sustainable basis over the longer term. In the 2009 Stability Programme, Finland’s medium-term objective for general government finances was set at a structural surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP. According to the forecast, immediate adjustment measures and other structural factors will improve the general government financial position such that the medium-term objective will be achieved during the programme period. At the same time, growth of general government debt will level off relative to GDP.