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Taloudelliset katsaukset

Economic Survey Autumn 2013
Aihe:Economic Survey, Autumn 2013 
ISBN-13:978- 952-251-490-5 
Julkaisusarja ja -numero:22c/2013 
Osasto:Taloudelliset katsaukset 
Saatavuus:Juvenes Print 
Tekijäorganisaatio:Ministry of Finance 

27.25 €

The euro area will come out of recession this year. However growth will remain slow because of low employment levels, balance sheet adjustments in both the household and public sector, and persistently low competitiveness. The financial and debt crisis has eroded the euro area’s growth potential. The US economy is continuing on its path of slow recovery. World trade growth remains exceptionally sluggish. Finnish GDP will contract by 0.5% in the current year. It is projected that the economy will only return to a slow growth track towards the end of the year. In 2014 GDP growth will edge up to 1.2% on the back of domestic consumption and exports. Growth will be bolstered by gradual recovery in the euro area, accelerating export demand and continued low interest rates. In 2015 it is predicted that growth will reach around 2% and be more broadly based than before. In the last years of the outlook period the GDP growth rate will exceed potential output growth, despite the historically sluggish rate of economic growth. The economy’s growth potential is low because labour input is stagnant, restructuring has destroyed existing production capacity, and there is very little investment in new production capacity. Sluggishness in the domestic economy has been reflected in consumer prices, and there has also been little upward price pressure from the international raw materials markets. This year’s average projected inflation rate is 1.6% and next year’s 2.1%. In both years increased indirect taxes will push up prices by 0.6 percentage points. The unemployment rate will rise to 8.3% this year and only drop below 8% towards the end of the outlook period. Unemployment will fall only slowly due to sluggish economic growth and mismatch problems in the labour market. The general government budgetary position is inevitably affected by the fact that GDP growth has been in negative territory for two consecutive years: public finances will remain in deficit over the coming years. Central government and local authorities are clearly in deficit, the earnings-related pension sector shows a surplus and other social security funds are close to balance. Public debt will rise both in nominal terms and in relation to GDP, and next year the debt ratio will exceed 60%. Public debt threatens to continue to increase in the medium term. Public expenditure to GDP is set to climb to its highest level in 15 years. TKtaitto_